In food trade, what’s written in an agreement matters far less than what happens at the border—and for Canadian food exporters, the 93% exemption rate is more fiction than fact.
Yank here. 1. Yes, this is personal, your gov't spent decades ridiculing GOP leaders, esp Trump. Both major parties ran anti-Trump campaigns. Good luck w/ the humiliation that Trump has planned for your leadership. Juvenile? Perhaps, but thats the cost of being cutesie liberals when conservatives take power. 2. NAFTA was supposed to make US-Mexico-Canada one big trading zone. It did no such thing. Ditto with CUSMA -- to the extent that Canada obeyed the terms (another issue) it still kept Canada off limits for tons of American goods and services. If you want to keep Amer goods/services out (and I understand protecting your agriculture against subsidized Amer products) then you have to figure there will be a price.
It’s a really concise and highly informative article. Thank you.
However, you and I will keep disagreeing about Carney’s tariff negotiation 😀
I think dealing with the US tariff team is akin to nailing jello to a wall. I actually think the Canadian team have been trying their hardest and I believe Trump never had any interest in settling the dispute and wants to make an example—remember the whole sovereign threats???
I think Trump and his sidekicks, Kash Patel and Kristi Noem, will keep making bogus claims about fentanyl and immigration to justify their nonsense.
Given the attempted shakedowns in the EU and Japanese deals, purchasing fuel or more direct investment, and reading between the lines, I believe Trump has probably asked for something ridiculous, like exclusive access to our critical minerals or our Arctic ports and Canada has said it’s out of scope.
I believe they have not yet and will not act in good faith until Trump wants to. We’ve already shown good faith and given up the digital sales tax. I also think Trump’s team will keep on with ridiculous asks in an effort to keep running the clock until 2026.
Sorry, Canada is a major supplier of dangerous drugs, money laundering through all the large banks, and protected haven for the criminals running the drug ops. It's hardly a secret.
I guess what I'm missing here is that this is only a zero-sum game. There are other players in the fiod distribution system, especially in the Global South. There might be some discrepancies with how the 90-93% CUSMA compliant goods are being reported, but still there are options for buyers to circumvent through tariffs especially with food.
1. “If you provoke Washington, tariffs—or their threat—will follow.” Also, if you don’t provoke Washington – tariffs - or their threat - will follow.
2. Some notes on the brilliant long view of Japan, South Korea, and the UK versus the apparently short-sighted and ill-advised position of Canada. Japan, South Korea, and the UK have made concessions to gain what they have. More importantly, given the volatility of the Trump administration they haven’t really gained a damn thing. “Frameworks” are not signed trade agreements. Trump changes his position on apparently settled matters frequently – this is an established fact.
3. All three of those countries have much less at stake than Canada. 30% of our GDP is currently dependent on trade with the US. That number is between 3% (UK) and 17% (SK) for the others. Concessions cost us more!
4. As for price increases. As a food economist, I’m sure you know for certain that there is nothing you can know for certain here. That is, if you take off your opinion column hat and slip on your objective analyst hat. Prices could rise, fall, or stay stable. Your piece considers only one scenario and you provide no data to suggest it is the most likely. What happens with prices depends on many things, including how U.S. trade ultimately shifts, how well diversification succeeds, and whether Canadians increase consumption of domestic products. It also depends on the time horizon your considering. Generally, it is too soon to predict with a reasonable level of certainty. If we’re being objective.
It's said that only 60% of eligible companies actually use the Free Trade Agreements like CUSMA because they feel it's too complex and don't want to figure out the math. They need to get professionals in to do the feasibility studies, the formula according to their production process and raw material inputs then document the methodology they are using and keeping the entire audit trail documented, including the certificate of origin they get from suppliers. It's only fiction when you don't have the program to support your claims.
If you're an American, good luck doing consulting work in Canada. Immigration for a job is totally out of the question. NAFTA and CUSMA didn't do what they were advertised to do, and even then, not enforced.
I guess, it depends on who you ask. I have implemented Free Trade Programs for both countries and have been on NAFTA (verification) audits for multinational corporations. It's like doing your business taxes. It's risky just to guess that you do or don't qualify. Many goods qualify Agrifood or not, the question is do you have the right programs in place. I have a free webinar on August 28 that explains the framework I use.
Yank here. 1. Yes, this is personal, your gov't spent decades ridiculing GOP leaders, esp Trump. Both major parties ran anti-Trump campaigns. Good luck w/ the humiliation that Trump has planned for your leadership. Juvenile? Perhaps, but thats the cost of being cutesie liberals when conservatives take power. 2. NAFTA was supposed to make US-Mexico-Canada one big trading zone. It did no such thing. Ditto with CUSMA -- to the extent that Canada obeyed the terms (another issue) it still kept Canada off limits for tons of American goods and services. If you want to keep Amer goods/services out (and I understand protecting your agriculture against subsidized Amer products) then you have to figure there will be a price.
Yikes. Truth lives.
A majority of Canadians have no clue how Canada actually conducts business on the world stage
A better understanding on how the food industry works and how even the thought of market volatility can disrupt food chains overnight.
Thank you.
It’s a really concise and highly informative article. Thank you.
However, you and I will keep disagreeing about Carney’s tariff negotiation 😀
I think dealing with the US tariff team is akin to nailing jello to a wall. I actually think the Canadian team have been trying their hardest and I believe Trump never had any interest in settling the dispute and wants to make an example—remember the whole sovereign threats???
I think Trump and his sidekicks, Kash Patel and Kristi Noem, will keep making bogus claims about fentanyl and immigration to justify their nonsense.
Given the attempted shakedowns in the EU and Japanese deals, purchasing fuel or more direct investment, and reading between the lines, I believe Trump has probably asked for something ridiculous, like exclusive access to our critical minerals or our Arctic ports and Canada has said it’s out of scope.
I believe they have not yet and will not act in good faith until Trump wants to. We’ve already shown good faith and given up the digital sales tax. I also think Trump’s team will keep on with ridiculous asks in an effort to keep running the clock until 2026.
Good points. Thank you.
Sorry, Canada is a major supplier of dangerous drugs, money laundering through all the large banks, and protected haven for the criminals running the drug ops. It's hardly a secret.
Getting what we voted for, good and hard.
I guess what I'm missing here is that this is only a zero-sum game. There are other players in the fiod distribution system, especially in the Global South. There might be some discrepancies with how the 90-93% CUSMA compliant goods are being reported, but still there are options for buyers to circumvent through tariffs especially with food.
1. “If you provoke Washington, tariffs—or their threat—will follow.” Also, if you don’t provoke Washington – tariffs - or their threat - will follow.
2. Some notes on the brilliant long view of Japan, South Korea, and the UK versus the apparently short-sighted and ill-advised position of Canada. Japan, South Korea, and the UK have made concessions to gain what they have. More importantly, given the volatility of the Trump administration they haven’t really gained a damn thing. “Frameworks” are not signed trade agreements. Trump changes his position on apparently settled matters frequently – this is an established fact.
3. All three of those countries have much less at stake than Canada. 30% of our GDP is currently dependent on trade with the US. That number is between 3% (UK) and 17% (SK) for the others. Concessions cost us more!
4. As for price increases. As a food economist, I’m sure you know for certain that there is nothing you can know for certain here. That is, if you take off your opinion column hat and slip on your objective analyst hat. Prices could rise, fall, or stay stable. Your piece considers only one scenario and you provide no data to suggest it is the most likely. What happens with prices depends on many things, including how U.S. trade ultimately shifts, how well diversification succeeds, and whether Canadians increase consumption of domestic products. It also depends on the time horizon your considering. Generally, it is too soon to predict with a reasonable level of certainty. If we’re being objective.
Charlebois is a Poilievre shill. He is well-known for taking any anti-Liberal stance he can find, and is funded by Loblaws.
How many of Canada's food manufacturers were exporting to the US before? Most of our exports are raw product so rules of origin are easy for them.
It's said that only 60% of eligible companies actually use the Free Trade Agreements like CUSMA because they feel it's too complex and don't want to figure out the math. They need to get professionals in to do the feasibility studies, the formula according to their production process and raw material inputs then document the methodology they are using and keeping the entire audit trail documented, including the certificate of origin they get from suppliers. It's only fiction when you don't have the program to support your claims.
If you're an American, good luck doing consulting work in Canada. Immigration for a job is totally out of the question. NAFTA and CUSMA didn't do what they were advertised to do, and even then, not enforced.
I guess, it depends on who you ask. I have implemented Free Trade Programs for both countries and have been on NAFTA (verification) audits for multinational corporations. It's like doing your business taxes. It's risky just to guess that you do or don't qualify. Many goods qualify Agrifood or not, the question is do you have the right programs in place. I have a free webinar on August 28 that explains the framework I use.